An associate professor of sociology, geography and Earth sciences at the University of Nebraska at Kearney says predicting the weather forecast is tricky business.

Stan Dart says the farther one looks into the future, the less reliable the prediction.

That's not good news to farmers who are looking to see if the drought that has been plaguing Nebraska will let up this year.

The tan patch covering most of the central Great Plains on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's January through March precipitation outlook map isn't good news either.

The map label predicts precipitation in most of Nebraska early in 2004 will be at least 33 percent less than the 1971-2000 average.

Dart says farmers shouldn't make any 2004 ag decisions based on current 90-day predications. They should check NOAA maps again in February and March for some planting season forecasts.