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Sunday Forecast: A chilly, wet finish to the weekend

Published: Oct. 23, 2021 at 5:00 PM CDT|Updated: Oct. 23, 2021 at 10:39 PM CDT
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LINCOLN, Neb. (KOLN) - If you have any outdoor plans on Sunday, the weather is not expected to be very nice as chilly, wet, and gray conditions are forecast to finish the weekend for eastern parts of the state.

As a warm front lifts north through Kansas, a band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across parts of eastern and southeastern Nebraska into Iowa and Missouri. Within this band of storms, we could see some isolated to scattered severe storms with the primary threat being hail up to 1″ in diameter. There is a marginal and slight risk for severe weather outlined by the SPC across southeastern Nebraska - including areas like Lincoln, Beatrice, Falls City, Nebraska City, and Omaha. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in place for Lincoln and southeastern Nebraska through 5 AM on Sunday.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in place for Lincoln and southeastern Nebraska through 5 AM on...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in place for Lincoln and southeastern Nebraska through 5 AM on Sunday. Large hail up to 1.5" in diameter will be the primary threat.(KOLN)

This first band of showers and storms moving through the area will be the first wave of rain we’re expecting to see over the next 24 hours. As an upper level trough amplifies and moves through the region, more scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact parts of eastern Nebraska into Sunday morning. At the surface, a low pressure system will develop and slide across parts of eastern Kansas. Parts of eastern and southeastern Nebraska will be targeted by wrap-around showers by Sunday afternoon. Eventually, that rainfall will move east of our area by late Sunday evening with rainfall coming to an end from west to east.

Storms are expected across southeastern Nebraska late Saturday into the early overnight hours...
Storms are expected across southeastern Nebraska late Saturday into the early overnight hours with additional wrap around showers and isolated thunderstorms through most of the day on Sunday.(KOLN)

Some decent rainfall amounts are expected for eastern Nebraska with the combination of the initial line of storms tonight and more rainfall expected through the day on Sunday. The heaviest rainfall with this system is expected to fall across parts of Iowa and Missouri where they could see 1″ to 3″ of rain. Into parts of eastern and southeastern Nebraska, rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.50″ to up to 1.50″. The latest model trends are pinpointing east central Nebraska for the heaviest rainfall through the day on Sunday, but much will depend on where showers and storms set up Saturday night and where the low tracks on Sunday as wherever the northwest quadrant of the low sets up Sunday afternoon will receive some additional rain.

A swath of around 0.50" to 1.00" of rain is expected for parts of eastern Nebraska through...
A swath of around 0.50" to 1.00" of rain is expected for parts of eastern Nebraska through Sunday evening.(KOLN)

In Lincoln, ensemble plumes have an average for Lincoln of around 0.50″ of rain through Sunday night. That being said, models still range from around 0.25″ to around 1.50″ or so for Lincoln, so there’s still some uncertainty regarding to the rainfall potential in Lincoln.

Ensemble plumes average around 0.50" of rainfall in Lincoln through Sunday.
Ensemble plumes average around 0.50" of rainfall in Lincoln through Sunday.(KOLN)
In house models still indicate though there is the potential for some heavier rain in Lincoln...
In house models still indicate though there is the potential for some heavier rain in Lincoln through Sunday.(KOLN)

Regardless of how much rain we see, Sunday looks to be a rather raw day - especially for Lincoln and eastern Nebraska. Temperatures won’t move much thanks to cloudy skies throughout most of the day. Winds into the day on Sunday are expected to turn to the north and northeast on the back-end of the low pressure system across parts of Kansas and they’ll likely be a bit blustery with wind gusts between 20 and 30 MPH at times. With steady temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s through the day, we’ll likely see wind chills in the mid 40s for most of Sunday. All this to go along with the expected off and on rain through most of Sunday.

Steady temperatures with areas of showers, storms, patchy fog, and blustery north and northeast...
Steady temperatures with areas of showers, storms, patchy fog, and blustery north and northeast winds are expected on Sunday.(KOLN)

Statewide temperatures look to fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday morning with afternoon “highs” ranging from the mid 40s to mid 60s across the state. The coolest readings are expected into northeastern Nebraska with the warmest weather expected for parts of western and southwestern Nebraska where mostly sunny skies are expected by the afternoon.

Look for lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s for most of the state into Sunday morning.
Look for lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s for most of the state into Sunday morning.(KOLN)
Look for highs ranging from the mid 40s to mid 60s on Sunday.
Look for highs ranging from the mid 40s to mid 60s on Sunday.(KOLN)

The extended forecast gives us a break from the rain on Monday before another system is expected to bring more chances for showers and storms - with some severe storms possible - on Tuesday into Wednesday. It also looks like we’ll be in for a blustery week as breezy winds are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures stay at or below normal over the next week with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Morning lows look to stay well above freezing with lows in the upper 30s to low 50s over the next week.

Chilly and wet weather is expected for Lincoln on Sunday with a break in rainfall chances on...
Chilly and wet weather is expected for Lincoln on Sunday with a break in rainfall chances on Monday before another system brings wet and windy weather to the region through the middle of the week next week.(KOLN)

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