Tuesday Forecast: A repeating pattern of “seasonably warm”...with occasional ‘storms

LINCOLN, Neb. (KOLN) - Little change is expected in our current weather pattern this week...

The weather pattern across the Central Plains hasn’t changed much over the past several days...and isn’t likely to change much this week either. Warm surface temperatures and low-level moisture have combined to give us daily shower-and-thunderstorm chances...with an occasional severe ‘storm or two. We have no real synoptic lifting mechanisms for thunderstorm development...no frontal boundaries or upper-level disturbance...and much of what we are seeing are locations reaching their “convective temperatures”. That’s the temperature that the surface must warm to in order for thunderstorm development...commonly referred to as “air-mass” thunderstorms. These ‘storms “can-and-do” pop-up just about anywhere...and can briefly be severe...with heavy rain also a threat at times as these ‘storms have a tendency to meander quite slowly in some direction. With this type of pattern...some areas will see significant rains in a short amount of time...while others may be completely missed...we continue to be dominated by the “whims” of Mother Nature...and she can be quite fickle and uncaring at times.

Our forecasts will continue to indicate at-or-above average temperatures for the rest of the week...along with daily thunderstorm chances...mainly in the afternoons and early evenings. Widespread severe weather is NOT anticipated...but ISOLATED severe ‘storms will be possible. Look for high temperatures to average out in the lower 80s-to-lower 90s through the end of the work week...with 70s-and-80s possible by the weekend if a predicted frontal boundary makes its way into the Midwest.

Our latest 7-Day Outlook will continue to run with warm temperatures and small daily thunderstorm chances through at least Thursday...with slightly higher precipitation chances indicated for Friday and Saturday as the aforementioned front makes its way into the region. Temperatures may actually fall “below” average by Sunday and Monday. The 8-to-14 day outlooks remain in flux...with temperatures showing a good chance of returning to ABOVE AVERAGE in the eastern-half of Nebraska...while precipitation chances are SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE for the entire state...through the period June 13th through the 19th.

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